Investments

War, Energy, and the New Fragility in Supply Chains

This summer has been a reminder of how fragile the global investment environment remains. Conflict and instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to ripple into energy prices, and the knock-on effect for UK investors is real.

The challenge for advisers is balancing client portfolios against this backdrop of energy vulnerability and disrupted supply chains. For many, the lesson is diversification: resilience doesn’t come from betting on a single sector, but from blending exposures across asset classes and geographies.

Professional Paraplanner recently underlined this point – fragility isn’t going away, so portfolios must be designed to flex with events rather than try to predict them.

High Turnover Strategies – A Contrarian Defence?

Another theme sparking debate is the value (or risk) of high turnover strategies. The conventional wisdom is to minimise churn to keep costs and tax drag low. But some managers argue that in volatile conditions, an active, nimble approach can add value.

The question advisers need to ask: is this discipline or reaction? Turnover in itself isn’t a strategy – it must be paired with a clear rationale, whether it’s capturing opportunities in shifting markets or mitigating downside risk. As ever, transparency on cost and risk to clients is the priority.

TIME:Advance – A Case Study in Investor Confidence

One of the standout updates this quarter has been from TIME:Advance, which continues to set itself apart in the Business Relief (BR) market.

• Top independent rating retained – Martin Churchill’s 2025 report again placed TIME:Advance as the most highly rated BR provider, noting their avoidance of leverage in renewables and their external valuations via BDO.
• £1.5bn AUM milestone – Assets under management have surged 50% since 2023, underlining both investor demand and confidence in the proposition.
• Rights Issue top-up window – Existing investors can still participate until 17 October (with cheques due by the 15th). Importantly, shares are backdated to the original investment date, which could qualify immediately for BR relief.
• Structured CPD webinars – Their “When BR…” series has attracted over 1,000 sign-ups, reflecting adviser appetite for practical CPD.

Behind these milestones sits a wider story: HMRC’s IHT receipts are soaring. In just the first five months of 2025/26, collections hit £3.7bn, up 5% year on year. Forecasts suggest receipts could exceed £9bn this year and £14bn by 2029–30. Frozen thresholds and rising asset values mean the pressure is only increasing.

For advisers, the question is less about if clients are exposed to IHT, and more about how quickly the exposure is growing.

Market Movers

It’s not just inheritance tax shaping the landscape. UK retail investors withdrew £1.8bn from funds in August, a sixfold increase from the prior month. Whether this is tactical repositioning or deeper nervousness remains to be seen – but it reinforces the need for advisers to keep client communication clear, frequent, and evidence-based.

Practical Takeaways for Advisers

• Stress test diversification: Portfolios should be designed to withstand energy price shocks and supply chain volatility, not just short-term market dips.
• Interrogate turnover strategies: Ensure the rationale is clear and the cost/benefit transparent for clients.
• Engage with IHT planning early: Rising receipts are a wake-up call – Business Relief and estate planning solutions remain essential tools.
• Stay close to clients: With retail flows showing volatility, proactive communication is critical to client trust.

Final Word

At We Complement, our role isn’t to tell advisers what to recommend, but to help them frame advice that’s evidence-based, defensible, and clear for clients. Whether it’s BR planning, portfolio structuring, or suitability oversight, the goal is the same: advice that holds up in real life, not just on paper.

If this resonates with what you’re seeing, we’d love to hear from you.

– Paul

I nearly didn’t write this one.

Not because there’s nothing going on. Quite the opposite.

There’s loads happening… but none of it in a way that’s easy to explain.

Rates haven’t moved when people thought they would. Markets are reacting, but not always how you’d expect. And depending on which article you read, the outlook is either cautiously optimistic or quietly concerning.

That’s the reality most advisers are sitting in right now.

Not chaos. Not clarity. Just that slightly uncomfortable middle ground where clients still expect answers.

The calm that isn’t really calm

The Bank of England holding rates at 5.25% might look like stability on the surface.

But it doesn’t feel like stability when you’re sat in front of a client.

Because expectations had already shifted. Clients were primed for change. And now you’re explaining why nothing happening… still matters.

Bank of England votes unanimously to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%

That gap between expectation and reality is where advice gets harder.

You’re not just explaining events. You’re explaining the absence of them.

Capital is moving, just not where clients expect

While rates are standing still, capital definitely isn’t.

The £112bn ETF provider acquiring a UK alternatives manager is a good example.

The bestselling fund houses of 2025 revealed

This isn’t just industry noise.

It points to something we’re seeing more of in actual cases:

• A continued push towards alternatives
• More pressure to justify diversification decisions
• Institutions repositioning earlier than retail

We’re not seeing a sudden rush into alternatives.

But we are seeing more conversations about them. And more importantly, more scrutiny when they show up in a recommendation.

Or when they don’t.

The UK question keeps coming up

Then there’s the UK.

International investment into UK businesses is down significantly since 2021.

International investment into UK businesses down a third since 2021

That filters through quicker than people think.

It shows up in client conversations like:

“Should we still be overweight UK?” “Is this an opportunity or a warning sign?”

And the honest answer most of the time is… it depends.

Which isn’t always what clients want to hear.

So again, the pressure lands on how well the advice is explained and evidenced, not just what the decision is.

At the same time, the outlook isn’t exactly negative

It would be easy to read all of that and assume the tone is pessimistic.

It isn’t.

HSBC’s latest outlook talks about “changing narratives” but still points to continued opportunity.

HSBC Private Bank shares Q2 2026 investment outlook: changing narratives, continued opportunity

That feels about right.

Most advisers I speak to aren’t bearish. They’re not overly optimistic either.

They’re just… navigating.

What this actually means in practice

This is the bit that matters.

Because none of your clients are asking for a market summary. They’re asking whether what they have still makes sense.

And right now, that’s harder to answer cleanly.

A few things we’re seeing across firms:

Explanations are getting longer

Not because anyone wants them to be.

But because you’re having to explain:

• Why rates haven’t moved
• Why portfolios haven’t reacted how clients expected
• Why staying put is sometimes the right call

You can feel when an explanation is doing too much heavy lifting.

That’s usually a sign something underneath it isn’t clear enough.

Justification is under more pressure

Especially around:

• Asset allocation
• Use of alternatives
• UK vs global exposure

“Because it’s reasonable” doesn’t really cut it anymore.

It needs to be evidenced. And it needs to hold up if someone else picks the file up cold.

That’s where we see the strain.

Consistency matters more than being right

Clients are consuming information from everywhere now.

News. Social. WhatsApp groups. Headlines taken out of context.

So if your narrative shifts too often, even for good reasons, it can start to feel like uncertainty.

Consistency builds confidence. But only if it’s backed by clear logic.

Not templates. Not filler wording. Actual thinking.

A quick sense check

If the last couple of weeks have felt a bit harder than usual, it’s probably not just you.

It might be worth stepping back and asking:

• Could someone else pick up this case and understand the decision path straight away?
• Are we showing the reasoning, or just describing the outcome?
• Would this still make sense in six months if markets move again?

Because this is where advice either holds up… or quietly starts to unravel.

Not in extreme markets.

In these slightly awkward ones where nothing is clearly wrong, but nothing feels particularly settled either.

Final thought

Months like this don’t look dramatic from the outside.

But they’re where the real work happens.

No big market moves to point at. No easy narrative to lean on.

Just clients looking for reassurance that what they’ve got still makes sense.

And that doesn’t come from reacting quickly.

It comes from being able to explain, clearly and confidently, why the advice stands up in the first place.

If this feels familiar, or you’re seeing the same conversations play out in your firm, we’d be interested to hear how you’re approaching it.

On paper, last week looked steady.

The Bank of England held rates.

The ECB did the same.

US manufacturing ticked back into expansion.

If you’re scanning headlines, you’d think things are settling down.

But in the conversations I’ve had with advisers this week, “calm” isn’t the word anyone is using.

What I’m hearing instead is caution. Selectivity. A sense that this market is rewarding precision, not optimism.

And I think that’s exactly right.

Central Banks: Steady, But Not Settled

The Bank of England held at 3.75 percent. The ECB held at 2 percent.

Technically uneventful.

But the BoE vote split was tighter than many expected. That matters. When committees start to show internal divergence, markets notice.

We are in what I’d call the messy middle.

Many households still assume rates will either fall sharply or stay high indefinitely. There’s very little appreciation for the reality in between. A slow glide path. Conditional moves. Policy shaped by incoming data, not ideology.

For advisers, this is less about predicting the next cut and more about reinforcing allocation discipline.

Rate stability does not equal certainty.

It simply means the margin for error is narrow.

For those who want the detail, the latest Monetary Policy Summary from the Bank of England is here:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes

The US: Resilient Data, Rising Politics

US manufacturing sentiment improved, with ISM moving back above 50. Growth expectations remain intact.

That resilience continues to surprise.

But politics is re-entering the conversation.

President Trump has indicated Kevin Warsh as his preferred replacement for Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Warsh has previously been seen as hawkish, though recent commentary suggests a softer bias.

Important context: even as Chair, he holds one vote among twelve FOMC members.

Markets may react to headlines. Policy remains committee driven.

There are also Supreme Court rulings on tariff cases due shortly, alongside shifting electoral sentiment in traditionally Republican districts. None of this is immediately market breaking, but it does add to a rising political risk backdrop as the year progresses.

Fidelity’s European open summary last week captures how markets are digesting this balance between resilience and uncertainty:

https://www.fidelity.co.uk/shares/stock-market-news/market-reports/europe-open–stoxx-hits-record-high-as-earnings-boost-sentiment/

AI: Same Spending, Very Different Outcomes

This is where divergence becomes obvious.

Alphabet is guiding towards 180 billion dollars in capital expenditure for 2026. Meta is forecasting between 125 and 135 billion.

Those are enormous numbers.

And yet Microsoft fell more than 15 percent after earnings, with investors underwhelmed by Azure revenue outlook and continued supply constraints.

This is the shift.

Twelve months ago, “AI exposure” was enough.

Now, markets want proof.

Spending alone is no longer the story. Returns are.

I would be very cautious about anyone claiming they can identify long term winners at this stage. The dispersion between companies investing at similar levels tells us we are still early in the cycle.

AJ Bell recently explored how different ways of tracking the market are delivering very different outcomes compared to the S&P 500 headline narrative:

A different way to track the market is beating the S&P 500

Broad beta is not doing the heavy lifting here. Selectivity is.

Alternatives: Volatility Hasn’t Gone Anywhere

Gold and silver experienced sharp volatility late last week, largely driven by leveraged retail participation, particularly in Asia. The CME’s decision to raise margin requirements amplified the moves.

When this happens, it’s rarely about long term conviction. It’s about positioning.

And this is usually the point in a client review where someone says, “Should we increase exposure while it’s moving?”

That is when discipline matters most.

The long term strategic case for precious metals may still stand. But they are not immune to sharp, sentiment driven swings.

Bitcoin drifting below 70,000 from highs above 120,000 is another reminder. ETF driven retail demand has faded, and highly leveraged corporate buyers may now face pressure as valuations retrace.

Volatility is not a flaw in these assets. It is part of their design.

The only meaningful question is whether that volatility aligns with the client’s objectives, time horizon, and capacity for loss.

The Bigger Theme: Dispersion

If I had to summarise this environment in one word, it would be dispersion.

Central banks are steady, but not aligned in tone.

US growth is resilient, but political risk is rising.

AI investment is enormous, but performance is uneven.

Commodities and crypto remain reactive rather than directional.

This is not a market for autopilot.

It is a market that rewards clarity of thinking, disciplined allocation, and honest conversations.

A Communication Opportunity

@Professional Paraplanner recently highlighted that many Brits remain confused by fundamental financial concepts.

That confusion shows up most clearly when markets become nuanced.

Clients simplify. Sometimes too much.

Your role is not just portfolio construction. It is translation.

A few questions I’ve seen advisers use well recently:

🟠 What would need to happen for us to change course?

🟠 Does this volatility alter your long term objective?

🟠 Are we reacting to noise, or responding to evidence?

Simple prompts. Powerful reassurance.

For context on the UK’s modest December GDP growth, which feeds directly into client sentiment, Investing.com’s summary is here:

U.K. economy registered modest growth in December; GDP grew 0.1%

Final Thought

I’ve always believed the real value of advice becomes most visible in markets like this.

Not when everything rises together.

But when dispersion forces decisions.

Clients do not need us to predict the next headline. They need us to interpret it.

If this mirrors the conversations you’re having in review meetings right now, I’d genuinely be interested to hear how you’re framing it.

Markets are nuanced. Good advice should be too.

Orphan drugs, biotech, and the reality behind the investment headlines

Biotech is back in the headlines again. UK investment ticking up. Life sciences described as a strategic growth engine. A renewed focus on rare diseases and orphan drugs.

For advisers, this tends to land in two ways.

Some clients see the innovation story and ask whether this is “the next big thing”. Others already hold biotech exposure and want reassurance after a volatile few years.

As ever, the reality sits somewhere in the middle. There is genuine long-term potential here, but it is not simple, quick, or risk free. This week, I want to unpack what is actually driving the orphan drugs space, what that means for biotech investment more broadly, and how advisers can frame sensible conversations with clients.

What are orphan drugs, and why are they getting attention?

Orphan drugs are treatments developed for rare diseases, typically conditions affecting fewer than 5 in 10,000 people in the UK or EU.

Historically, these diseases were underfunded and underserved. Development costs were high, patient numbers were low, and commercial incentives were weak.

That has changed.

Governments and regulators now actively encourage orphan drug development through incentives such as:

• Market exclusivity for approved treatments

• Tax credits and grants

• Faster regulatory pathways

The UK Parliament’s briefing on rare diseases highlights how these incentives are designed to stimulate innovation while addressing unmet medical need. It is worth a read for context rather than detail.

From an investment perspective, this matters because orphan drugs can offer high margins, strong pricing power, and long exclusivity periods once approved.

The UK biotech investment picture, steadier than the headlines suggest

After a tough couple of years for biotech globally, recent data suggests UK investment is stabilising rather than surging.

Pharmaphorum reports that UK biotech investment ticked up in Q2, with industry bodies describing conditions as “holding firm”  rather than booming.

That distinction is important.

This is not a hype-driven recovery. It is a selective, cautious return of capital, often focused on later-stage companies, proven pipelines, and areas like rare diseases where regulatory support is clearer.

For advisers, that supports a more measured narrative. This is not about timing a bounce. It is about understanding where capital is being deployed and why.

Intellectual property is the real value driver

One thing that often gets missed in client conversations is that biotech investing is not just about science. It is about intellectual property (IP).

Strong patents and defensible IP are what turn research into investable assets. Without them, even successful treatments struggle to deliver long-term shareholder value.

The ABPI and Kilburn & Strode both highlight how IP strategy underpins innovation, funding, and eventual commercial success in life sciences.

In practical terms, this means:

• Early-stage biotech is highly binary. Success or failure can hinge on a single patent or trial outcome.

• Larger, diversified biotech firms tend to manage this risk better through broader pipelines and layered IP protection.

This is often where adviser judgement really matters, helping clients distinguish between innovation exposure and speculation.

The long game, not a quick win

Several commentators, including Janus Henderson, frame biotech as a long-cycle investment. One that requires patience, diversification, and realistic expectations.

That aligns closely with what we see when reviewing portfolios and recommendations.

Biotech, including orphan drug exposure, can play a role within a wider growth allocation. It rarely makes sense as a concentrated bet for most retail clients.

Useful framing questions for advisers might include:

• Is this exposure aligned with the client’s capacity for loss, not just their attitude to risk?

• Is the investment diversified across companies, regions, and development stages?

• Are time horizons genuinely long enough to ride out regulatory and clinical setbacks?

Practical takeaways for advisers

If biotech and orphan drugs are coming up more often in client conversations, a few grounding points can help keep advice balanced and defensible.

• Focus on themes, not stock picking. Funds and diversified vehicles reduce single-trial risk.

• Anchor discussions in outcomes, not innovation headlines. Clients care about returns, volatility, and fit with their plan.

• Be clear about uncertainty. Regulatory support helps, but it does not remove development risk.

• Document rationale carefully. Especially where higher-risk growth assets sit alongside core planning objectives.

For accessible overviews that clients may already be reading, these pieces give a reasonable starting point.

Investing in Biotech: Top UK Biotech Stocks of 2026

Should you invest in biotech?

Final thoughts

The renewed focus on orphan drugs reflects something positive. Innovation is being directed at real, unmet needs, and the UK remains an important part of that ecosystem.

From an advice perspective, the opportunity is not about chasing the story. It is about translating a complex, specialist area into clear, proportionate investment decisions that genuinely serve the client’s long-term plan.

If this resonates with what you are seeing in client conversations, we would love to hear your perspective. And if you want to talk through how these themes are showing up in real cases, just reach out. No pitch, just people who get financial advice.

The start of the year often brings a strange mix of calm and movement in investment markets. Headlines are still coming through, capital is still flowing, but the tone feels more considered. Less noise. More intention.

This week’s updates from across infrastructure, alternatives, and growth capital all point to the same underlying theme. Money is still being deployed, but with clearer purpose and longer time horizons. For advisers and paraplanners, that matters. These are exactly the areas where client suitability, timeframes, and expectations need the most careful handling.

Here are a few reflections on what stood out this week, and what it might mean for advice conversations.

Natural capital moves from niche to normal

Foresight Group’s latest research shows that more than half of UK family offices are already investing in natural capital strategies. That is a meaningful shift. A few years ago, this sat firmly in the “interesting but early” bucket. Now it is becoming part of mainstream portfolio construction for sophisticated investors.

You can read the full piece here:

Over half of UK family offices already invest in natural capital strategies

What is notable is not just the uptake, but the motivation. These investments are not being framed purely as ESG statements. They are being positioned as long-term, inflation-linked, real asset exposures with diversification benefits.

For advisers, this raises familiar but important questions:

• How well do clients understand the liquidity profile and time horizon?
• Is the sustainability narrative driving the decision, or the underlying risk and return characteristics?
• How clearly is the role of the investment articulated within the wider portfolio?

Natural capital can absolutely have a place in the right circumstances. But it relies on strong objective-setting and very clear suitability evidence, particularly where outcomes are long-dated and valuation is less transparent.

VCT fundraising continues, confidence with caveats

Puma Investments £20m raise for its Alpha VCT is another reminder that appetite for growth capital has not disappeared. Investors are still willing to back UK scale-ups, even against a more cautious economic backdrop.

The announcement is here:

New fundraise of £20m for Puma Alpha VCT to continue backing ambitious UK scale-ups

What we tend to see in practice is that renewed VCT fundraising often triggers two types of client conversation at the same time. Existing investors reviewing whether allocations still make sense, and new investors attracted by tax relief headlines without fully appreciating the risk.

This is where advice quality really earns its keep. VCTs, EIS, and Business Relief solutions are rarely unsuitable by default, but they are very easy to mis-position. The difference lies in how well advisers and paraplanners:

• Anchor the recommendation to clearly evidenced objectives
• Set expectations around timeframes, liquidity, and variability of outcomes
• Demonstrate why this solution fits this client, at this point in time

The technical case is only half the job. The suitability story matters just as much.

A pause that feels intentional, not hesitant

Tatton Investment Management Limited’s recent reflection on taking a “quiet break from the new normal” captured something we are hearing repeatedly across firms.

You can read it here:

A quiet break from the new normal

There is a sense that many teams are deliberately slowing certain decisions. Not because confidence has gone, but because there is a desire to sense-check. To step back. To make sure last year’s assumptions still hold.

That mindset shows up clearly in suitability work. Files are becoming more reflective. Advisers are asking better questions earlier. Paraplanners are spending more time on context and less on post-rationalisation.

In our experience, this kind of pause often leads to better outcomes. It creates space to challenge default solutions and revisit whether a recommendation still genuinely serves the client’s longer-term needs.

Infrastructure keeps quietly scaling

Downing‘s expansion of its UK solar portfolio through ready-to-build projects is another example of capital quietly going to work in the background.

Details here:

Downing grows UK solar portfolio through ready-to-build projects

Infrastructure rarely grabs headlines in the same way as growth capital, but it plays a different role. Predictable cashflows, long-term contracts, and alignment with structural trends like energy transition.

Again, suitability is the anchor. Infrastructure solutions can be compelling for the right client, but only when:

• The income profile matches the client’s actual needs
• Concentration risk is properly considered
• The recommendation is positioned as part of a balanced strategy, not a silver bullet

Pulling it together for advice teams

Across all four stories, the common thread is not excitement or fear. It is intentionality. Capital is moving, but with clearer reasoning behind it.

For advisers and suitability consultants, this is a good moment to reflect on a few practical points:

• Are objectives being revisited often enough, or assumed to be static?
• Is risk framed in plain English, not just risk ratings?
• Do alternative and tax-efficient solutions have a clearly defined role, or are they filling a gap by default?

These are not new questions, but they matter most when markets feel quieter. That is when the quality of advice logic really shows.

If this resonates with what you are seeing in your own conversations, we would genuinely love to hear from you. No pitch. Just people who spend a lot of time thinking about how advice stands up when it really matters.

You can’t open Professional Paraplanner this month without seeing the same headline: billions of pounds still sitting in savings accounts earning 1% or less.

It’s easy to understand why. After a decade of shocks – inflation, interest-rate jumps, and market whiplash – investors have grown cautious. But as we move towards 2026, that caution is quietly becoming costly.

The illusion of safety

Holding cash can feel like control. It’s visible, accessible, and seemingly “risk-free.” But when inflation averages 4%, £100,000 in a 1% savings account loses more than £9,000 of real value in three years. The line between prudence and erosion is thinner than most realise.

As advisers know, inaction is still a decision – one that can materially shape long-term outcomes.

Re-framing risk for clients

The challenge isn’t convincing clients to be brave; it’s helping them see that:

• Risk managed is not risk ignored. Diversification, time horizons, and product design all have structure and discipline behind them.
• Cash can be purposeful. Emergency funds are essential, but anything beyond that should serve a defined objective.
• Inflation is the silent loss. Use simple illustrations to make real-term erosion visible – it often changes the conversation faster than a market forecast ever could.
• Suitability is the anchor. Every portfolio decision should still be evidenced against the client’s objectives and appetite for loss.

Platforms and products expanding access

The industry is also adapting. HSBC’s Model Portfolio Service (MPS) is now live on Parmenion, Nucleus, and Novia, adding to an already broad list of platforms – from Aviva and Abrdn Wrap to Transact and 7IM. Greater accessibility means it’s becoming easier for advisers to offer risk-appropriate, diversified solutions without operational friction.

Similarly, Elston’s Smoothed MPS via Aviva highlights the shift toward products that keep clients invested while reducing volatility – a useful middle ground between fear and opportunity.

Why this matters now

When markets wobble, “safe” often feels like the right call. But from a suitability perspective, the adviser’s role is to bring balance – to turn emotional caution into structured confidence.

That’s where disciplined advice makes its mark: evidence-based recommendations, defensible rationale, and clear communication that bridges logic and reassurance.

Because safety, when left untested, isn’t really safety at all. It’s just deferred risk in another form.

If this reflects what you’re seeing in your client conversations, I’d love to hear how your firm is approaching it. No pitch – just a shared discussion on how we can keep advice grounded, balanced, and built to last.

The appeal never gets old

Few assets spark the same emotion as a classic car. For some, it’s the growl of a V12; for others, it’s the nostalgia of a Sunday drive with the roof down. But beyond the romance, classic cars are increasingly being discussed as serious investments – part collectible, part alternative asset class.

With demand for rare models and limited supply, the numbers have been impressive. According to Classic Car Clubs UK’s Q1 2025 Market Report, blue-chip classics like the Jaguar E-Type and Porsche 911 Turbo continue to hold value even in volatile markets. Yet, as advisers and paraplanners know, emotional assets can be tricky to quantify – and even trickier to justify in a diversified portfolio.

So, are collectible cars a legitimate long-term play, or just a beautifully polished gamble?

Understanding what drives the market

The Wealthspireanalysis ¹ breaks the investment case into three forces: scarcity, sentiment, and stewardship.

• Scarcity– production numbers are finite, and many vehicles are already lost to time.

• Sentiment– cultural cachet drives demand (think Bond-era Aston Martins or 80s Ferraris).

• Stewardship– the condition and provenance of the car determine its resale trajectory.

That last point is critical: these assets need constant care. A car that isn’t driven or maintained can depreciate faster than a bear-market portfolio.

The risk under the bonnet

The Credence Research ² and Goodsong Gallery ³ pieces agree; while headline returns can hit double digits, costs and liquidity risks are substantial.

• Maintenance & storage: Insurance, servicing, and climate-controlled storage can exceed 2–3% of value per year.

• Liquidity: Cars aren’t traded on an exchange – selling takes time, connections, and sometimes luck.

• Valuation volatility: Prices are often driven by auction trends, not fundamentals.

• Regulatory risk: Environmental legislation may tighten restrictions on older vehicles, impacting use and resale.

In other words, classic cars behave more like art than equities.

Portfolio fit: diversification or distraction?

According to Sierks Investors Magazine ⁴, the global collectible-car market is maturing. Institutions are beginning to index data on vintage-car performance, making it easier to model correlations with traditional assets. Early findings suggest low correlation with equities and bonds, which could make a small allocation (typically < 5%) a genuine diversifier – for the right client.

However, it’s not suitable for everyone. Advisers need to consider:

• Client objectives– is this wealth preservation, legacy planning, or lifestyle investing?

• Liquidity needs– will the client need to access capital quickly?

• Knowledge and engagement– does the client understand the market, or are they relying on third-party dealers?

As Luhhu Finance⁵ notes, successful collectors often treat their garages like businesses: meticulous records, regular valuations, and a clear sell strategy.

The UK scene in 2025

Market data from ClassicCarClubs.uk’s Q1 2025 analysis shows UK transactions slightly down in volume but up in average value – suggesting consolidation among serious collectors. Electric-vehicle policies have also boosted interest in “final-generation” petrol icons like the BMW M3 E92 and Audi R8 V10, listed by Auto Express ⁷ as among the “future classics”expected to appreciate over the next decade.

For high-net-worth clients, this isn’t just nostalgia – it’s a potential hedge against monetary inflation and currency fluctuation, albeit one best viewed through a long-term, discretionary-portfolio lens.

Practical takeaways for advisers

If a client raises classic cars in an investment meeting, consider framing the discussion around:

1. Purpose before product– clarify whether this is an emotional purchase or a portfolio allocation.

1. Full-cost view– include storage, insurance, and restoration in any ROI discussion.

1. Exit planning– how and when will value be realised, and through which channels?

1. Due diligence– verify provenance and authenticity; partner only with reputable auction houses or dealer networks.

1. Tax and reporting– remember that cars may not qualify for capital-gains exemptions and can complicate estate planning.

The bottom line

Classic cars can bring joy, status, and – in the right hands – returns. But they’re illiquid, maintenance-heavy, and sentiment-driven. As advisers, our role is to help clients balance passion with prudence, ensuring the thrill of ownership doesn’t override the discipline of investment.

If this resonates with what you’re seeing among your clients, we’d love to hear your perspective. Have you encountered more “alternative asset” conversations recently?

¹ Wealthspire: Investing in Collectible Cars (2025)

² Credence Research: Classic Cars as Investments (2024)

³ Goodsong Gallery: Are Classic Cars Still a Good Investment?

⁴ Sierks Magazine: Classic Cars as an Investment – Guide for Investors (2025)

⁵ Luhhu Blog: Why Investing in Vintage Cars Makes Financial Sense

⁷ Auto Express: Best Future Classics 2025

War, Energy, and the New Fragility in Supply Chains

This summer has been a reminder of how fragile the global investment environment remains. Conflict and instability in Eastern Europe and the Middle East continue to ripple into energy prices, and the knock-on effect for UK investors is real.

The challenge for advisers is balancing client portfolios against this backdrop of energy vulnerability and disrupted supply chains. For many, the lesson is diversification: resilience doesn’t come from betting on a single sector, but from blending exposures across asset classes and geographies.

Professional Paraplanner recently underlined this point – fragility isn’t going away, so portfolios must be designed to flex with events rather than try to predict them.

High Turnover Strategies – A Contrarian Defence?

Another theme sparking debate is the value (or risk) of high turnover strategies. The conventional wisdom is to minimise churn to keep costs and tax drag low. But some managers argue that in volatile conditions, an active, nimble approach can add value.

The question advisers need to ask: is this discipline or reaction? Turnover in itself isn’t a strategy – it must be paired with a clear rationale, whether it’s capturing opportunities in shifting markets or mitigating downside risk. As ever, transparency on cost and risk to clients is the priority.

TIME:Advance – A Case Study in Investor Confidence

One of the standout updates this quarter has been from TIME:Advance, which continues to set itself apart in the Business Relief (BR) market.

• Top independent rating retained – Martin Churchill’s 2025 report again placed TIME:Advance as the most highly rated BR provider, noting their avoidance of leverage in renewables and their external valuations via BDO.
• £1.5bn AUM milestone – Assets under management have surged 50% since 2023, underlining both investor demand and confidence in the proposition.
• Rights Issue top-up window – Existing investors can still participate until 17 October (with cheques due by the 15th). Importantly, shares are backdated to the original investment date, which could qualify immediately for BR relief.
• Structured CPD webinars – Their “When BR…” series has attracted over 1,000 sign-ups, reflecting adviser appetite for practical CPD.

Behind these milestones sits a wider story: HMRC’s IHT receipts are soaring. In just the first five months of 2025/26, collections hit £3.7bn, up 5% year on year. Forecasts suggest receipts could exceed £9bn this year and £14bn by 2029–30. Frozen thresholds and rising asset values mean the pressure is only increasing.

For advisers, the question is less about if clients are exposed to IHT, and more about how quickly the exposure is growing.

Market Movers

It’s not just inheritance tax shaping the landscape. UK retail investors withdrew £1.8bn from funds in August, a sixfold increase from the prior month. Whether this is tactical repositioning or deeper nervousness remains to be seen – but it reinforces the need for advisers to keep client communication clear, frequent, and evidence-based.

Practical Takeaways for Advisers

• Stress test diversification: Portfolios should be designed to withstand energy price shocks and supply chain volatility, not just short-term market dips.
• Interrogate turnover strategies: Ensure the rationale is clear and the cost/benefit transparent for clients.
• Engage with IHT planning early: Rising receipts are a wake-up call – Business Relief and estate planning solutions remain essential tools.
• Stay close to clients: With retail flows showing volatility, proactive communication is critical to client trust.

Final Word

At We Complement, our role isn’t to tell advisers what to recommend, but to help them frame advice that’s evidence-based, defensible, and clear for clients. Whether it’s BR planning, portfolio structuring, or suitability oversight, the goal is the same: advice that holds up in real life, not just on paper.

If this resonates with what you’re seeing, we’d love to hear from you.

– Paul

Why are advisers talking about racehorses?

Specialised investments tend to arrive in adviser conversations when clients bring them up first. Racehorses are one of those topics. A client may have inherited a stake in a horse, been offered a syndicate share, or simply be tempted by the glamour of racing.

But beneath the champagne and Royal Ascot headlines sits a business model that is high-risk, highly variable, and at times emotionally driven. For advisers and paraplanners, the question is simple: how do you help a client weigh up whether horse ownership or related investments have a genuine place in their financial plan?

The Economics of Horse Racing

The UK racing sector is not small. It contributes billions annually to the economy and directly employs tens of thousands of people . Yet, profitability is far from guaranteed:

• High fixed costs: training fees, stabling, vet bills, transport.
• Uncertain returns: even top-bred horses may never win a major race.
• Concentration risk: performance is tied to a single animal, with limited diversification.

According to Everything Horse UK, the gulf between prize money and costs means only a tiny proportion of owners see a consistent profit .

For clients, it’s important to stress: racehorse ownership is rarely an “investment” in the traditional sense. It is closer to a lifestyle choice with a speculative upside.

Routes into the Market

If a client is interested, what are their options?

• Full ownership: prestige and control, but also the full burden of costs and risks.
• Syndicates or partnerships: a more affordable entry point, spreading costs and offering a sense of community.
• Racing clubs: usually lower cost, but these tend to offer experience rather than investment returns.
• Equine-related businesses: training, breeding, bloodstock-each with their own risk profile.

Risk Profile: What Advisers Should Flag

When assessing suitability, a few themes stand out:

1. Liquidity – stakes in horses or syndicates can be difficult to exit.
2. Transparency – syndicates vary in how clearly they disclose costs and expected returns.
3. Volatility – performance is unpredictable; injury or underperformance can wipe out expected returns overnight.
4. Taxation – while winnings are typically tax-free for individuals, related business ventures (like breeding) may be treated differently.
5. Welfare considerations – reputational risk matters; clients increasingly care how animals are treated, and UK racing’s welfare standards are under scrutiny.

Where it Fits in a Portfolio

For most clients, the honest answer is: it probably doesn’t.

From a regulated advice perspective, racehorse ownership does not offer the diversification, defensibility, or liquidity that most portfolios require. At best, it sits in the “speculative” or “passion asset” category akin to art, wine, or classic cars.

That doesn’t mean advisers should dismiss it out of hand. Instead, positioning it as:

• A lifestyle purchase: something clients do for enjoyment, status, or community.
• Not core wealth: it should never replace mainstream diversified investments.
• An emotional decision: acknowledge that non-financial returns (excitement, involvement, prestige) may outweigh financial logic.

Practical Pointers for Advisers

If a client raises this area, here are three practical steps:

• Frame expectations early – make clear that this is high-risk and unlikely to deliver reliable returns.
• Document suitability carefully – especially under Consumer Duty. Make sure client objectives (fun, experience, prestige) are stated explicitly.
• Signpost reputable sources – direct clients to industry overviews like British Horseracing Authority’s welfare standards and investment explainers like Niche Racing.

Bigger Picture: What This Teaches Us

Even if your client never invests in a horse, the topic is a useful reminder:

• Clients are influenced by lifestyle trends, not just markets.
• Suitability isn’t just about returns; it’s about aligning advice with personal goals, however unconventional.
• Specialist investments can spark valuable conversations about risk appetite, liquidity, and diversification.

Sometimes, leaning into the “fun” examples-like racehorses-can make more serious portfolio principles easier to explain.

Final Thoughts

Racehorse ownership will never be mainstream. For most, it’s an indulgence, not an investment. But it is part of the wider landscape of “passion assets,” and advisers who can engage with it knowledgeably strengthen their position as trusted guides.

If a client asks you about it, the best response is rarely a blunt “no.” Instead, it’s a balanced conversation: respect the excitement, explain the risks, and keep the financial plan grounded.

Robert Rubin once said: “Some people are more certain of everything than I am of anything.”It’s a reminder that in investing, the only certainty is uncertainty.

Two recent stories underline this. First, Novo Nordisk lost a fifth of its value in a single day after lowering its 2025 profit forecast. The company is still set to grow – just not at the sky-high levels investors had assumed. The result? Shares fell two-thirds from their peak, punishing anyone who believed growth would continue in a straight line.

Chart 1: Novo Nordisk’s sharp share price fall shows how quickly lofty forecasts can unravel.

Second, Deutsche Bank data shows only two of the ten largest companies in 2000 have outperformed the S&P 500 since then. Some now earn less than they did 24 years ago. Today’s “Magnificent Seven” may look unstoppable, but history suggests otherwise. Forecasts built on confidence often crumble under reality.

Chart 2: The top 10 stocks of 2000 underperformed the S&P 500 over the following two decades, a warning for todays market favourites.

So what does this have to do with bonds? Everything.

Bonds aren’t equities – and that’s the point

It’s tempting to apply the same logic to bonds that we use with equities: buy the index, avoid active managers, keep costs low. But fixed income is different.

• The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index tracks over 31,000 securities across 72 countries.

• By comparison, the FTSE All-World Index covers around 4,200 equities.

Bond markets are vast, fragmented, and constantly evolving as new issues replace old ones. Companies issue one class of shares, but often dozens of bonds, each with different maturities, coupons, and structures.

That complexity creates inefficiencies – and inefficiencies create opportunity.

📖 For context, see the FCA’s overview of fixed income products and risks.

Why active fixed income still matters

In equities, active managers often struggle to beat the benchmark after fees. In bonds, the story can be different.

Active managers can:

• Unearth overlooked bonds that rarely trade but offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.

• Tilt towards improving economies, where sovereign yields are falling.

• Select issuers with strengthening fundamentals, where credit spreads may tighten.

They don’t need to forecast the future perfectly. They just need to use flexibility to reduce exposure where risk is rising, and increase exposure where markets misprice resilience.

Managing risk when forecasts fail

For clients, the bigger benefit isn’t just potential alpha – it’s risk management.

When expectations break down in equities, valuations can collapse overnight (as Novo Nordisk showed). In fixed income, active managers can adjust portfolios dynamically to smooth returns, protect capital, and keep portfolios aligned with client goals.

That agility supports:

• Capital preservation for clients worried about volatility.

• Income stability when yields are attractive but uneven.

• Outcome alignment, a key requirement under the FCA’s Consumer Duty PS22/9.

Passive vs. active – not either/or

None of this means passive bond funds don’t have a place. They remain a low-cost way to gain broad exposure. But framing the choice as “all passive” or “all active” is misleading.

The sweet spot may be benchmark-aware strategies: active funds that keep costs in check while using their flexibility to manage risk and exploit inefficiencies. Vanguard’s Global Core and Global Strategic Bond Funds are examples, designed either as standalone allocations or complements to index exposure.

What advisers and paraplanners should take away

For advisers, the key message for clients is simple: forecasts will fail. What matters is whether portfolios can flex when they do.

For paraplanners, this means documenting the rationale clearly:

• Diversification beyond the benchmark

• Risk management as well as return

• Alignment with client objectives, not just performance targets

That alignment is what makes suitability defensible – and what helps clients stay invested when forecasts inevitably disappoint.

The bottom line

Forecasting may be fragile, but strategy doesn’t have to be. Equity markets will always lure investors with stories of endless growth. History suggests those stories often end badly.

Bond markets, by contrast, offer scope to use complexity and inefficiency as tools for stability. Active fixed income isn’t about outguessing the market. It’s about building portfolios that remain resilient when the forecasts go wrong.

And if the last few months have shown us anything, it’s that forecasts willgo wrong.

👉 If this resonates with what you’re seeing in client conversations, we’d love to hear from you.